So, needless to say, we need a new reason to panic. And that’s been “None of this matters, because Trump and his allies are going to just steal the election!”
Let’s break this down, just as the title says:
Why the 2024 elections won’t be stolen:
The short answer is that every tactic being floated was already tried in 2020 – when Trump was in office, when Republicans had more control over election certification in swing states, when the same six conservative Supreme Court Justices were on the Court, and when Trump had his people in the Department of Justice. They all failed.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the more panic-inducing theories:
“Republicans will use the courts to overturn the election!” No, they won’t. Republicans filed 62 lawsuits challenging the results of the 2020 elections, and lost every last one. They got one temporary victory in Pennsylvania that was ultimately overturned by the State Supreme Court (and, fun fact, that judge was defeated when she ran for PA Supreme Court in 2023. Voters don’t like this stuff). What’s more, since 2020, Democrats have gained control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court and Court of Appeals, the Michigan Supreme Court, the Pennsylvania Superior Court, the Arizona Secretary of State’s and Attorney General’s offices, and the Nevada Secretary of State’s office. And that’s before we get to the 205 (and counting!) federal judges appointed by Joe Biden. Trump’s going to have to win these lawsuits with a much less friendly bunch of officials in charge.
“Trump’s Supreme Court will just hand him the election!” See above. The same six conservative judges were on the Court in 2020, and they tossed every one of his lawsuits. Now Trump’s not the incumbent and doesn’t have the resources of the Department of Justice at his fingertips, either.
“Republicans will use Congress to overthrow the election results!”I’d like to introduce you to the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022. This expedites any lawsuits around certifying the election in case local officials want to gum up the system, clarifies that courts have the power to overrule attempted steals by corrupt Governors, and limits the grounds that the House and Senate can use to throw out results. It’s much harder than before – and if we can win the House and Senate, it’ll be impossible.
“But I heard Georgia’s elections board is going to ruin everything!” I’ll leave aside the fact that Dems can win the House, Senate, and Presidency without Georgia for a moment, and point out that actually, they won’t ruin everything. They might claim irregularities in the results and try to gum up the certification process – so we take them to court and make them certify. Using that expedited process in the Electoral Count Act of 2022, of course, and federal judges who are used to dealing with this nonsense from 2020. They might suppress the vote through closing polling places and purging voter registrations – well, they’ve done that for decades, and we still beat them in 2020 and 2022. The big theme of this is that when it comes to voter suppression, you can beat it by getting out the vote. We’ve got lawyers who are ready for nonsense.
Why your posts and comments about it are the real problem:
If people think their vote isn’t going to count, why would they bother voting? They certainly won’t canvass or phonebank, things we need to do if we’re going to win. People won’t take part, or give it their all, if they think it’s all for nothing. If enough of our voters get discouraged and don’t vote, or don’t encourage others, Trump won’t have to steal anything – he’ll just win. And that’ll trickle down to other important races. I can already say I’ve had to talk people out of dropping phonebank shifts because of fears that races will just be stolen.
Dealing with misinformation takes time. I’ll refrain from making cracks about the length of this post and simply say that I’d rather be sharing how to register to vote, or how to volunteer for candidates in swing districts. The only thing you can’t get back in politics is time, and we’d all rather spend that time on making sure we win.
“Just sharing information” and “I feel anxious about this” aren’t valid reasons to post this stuff. Period. Your ‘information’ does nothing except make people less likely to vote or volunteer, and you’re not going to help your anxiety by posting – in fact, you’re going to spin yourself up even more, and drag others down with you. The solution for political anxiety is a) talking to a mental health professional who’s qualified to help you, and b) taking action. Political anxiety comes from a lack of agency over something important, like an election. But you do have agency and can help win. Not by posting, not by making snappy comments online, but by talking to voters and helping Democrats win. If you’re worried that your vote will be stolen, read this post again. It won’t. But if we lose, it won’t matter.
Feel free to share this post anywhere. We can win – not just for President, but also the Senate, the House, state government, local offices, and ballot measures. We can build a better America together, and the GOP can’t steal it from us. It’s our effort, our hope, and our strength that can win any election, and bring about the world we want to live in. Shake off the lies, and use the next eleven weeks to work for democracy, together.
every 4 years I see people talking about how they live in a red state (or more rarely a blue state) so their vote doesn’t matter and I just want to briefly point out that I think nearly every state is either a swing state for the Presidential election, having a key Senate Race that will decide control of the Senate, has one or more key House races that’ll decide control of the House, or is having an important Governor’s race that’ll could flip control of the state
Presidential Swing states:
Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Key Senate Races:
Arizona
Florida
Maryland
Michigan
Montana
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin
States With Key House Races:
Alabama
Alaska
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Texas
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin
Swingable Governor Races:
New Hampshire
North Carolina
there are lots of local and state level races that are very important to, but my point was basically odds are very very good, you live somewhere where your vote will help decide what America looks like in 2025. Don’t get tricked into thinking just because your state isn’t one of the ones always mentioned in the news as a swing state that it doesn’t matter what you do
And even if your state is not in any of those lists, and there is really and truly not a chance that it will go blue in any way in this election at any level, your vote still matters! Leaving aside local races (and your school board, sheriff, police chief, county commissioner, mayor, and other local offices have a huge impact on your community), your vote will change things in the 2026 and 2028 elections.
A district where the Democrat gets only 30% of the vote is very different from a district where the Democrat gets only 40% of the vote. In both cases they lose (unless the conservative votes are split). But! If the Democrat gets 30% of the vote, the Republicans know that next election cycle that district is safe. They don’t need to put much money or effort in getting their guy elected, they could put up an inanimate object and it would probably win the race. So they can take all their money and put it into races that are competitive. Races that could go either way.
But if the Democrat gets 40% of the vote, that changes the calculus. Maybe it’s still a safe district! … but maybe it’s trending purple-to-blue. If they want to keep it safe, they gotta pour resources into it. Which means they have fewer resources to spend on the swing states, which means that Democrats elsewhere have a greater chance of being re-elected.
Also, consider it from the Democrat perspective. If the Democrat gets 30% of the vote, they’re not going to support the next candidate very well. They’re going to use their resources elsewhere, and the chances of your district flipping or getting competitive are vanishingly small.
But if the Democrat gets 40% of the vote, then it’s worth it to pay more attention to the local races, see if they can influence things and build up a voting base and flip the district.
Politics is a long game. You’re not just voting to get someone elected this term. You’re also voting to try and set things up so that things are possible further on down the line.
There’s always going to be a next election (unless fascism wins). It’s a tournament or a season of play, not a single game. Even if you don’t win this time, you can set things up to put you in a better position next time.
Voting directly on issues is the purest expression of democracy, and one way even people in heavily suppressed states can get good policies around their shitty legislatures.
Also the “I didn’t vote group” is the largest voting group by far.
Texas for example, if every Texan voted, would very likely be a purple/blue state but a lack of engagement (and aggressive voter suppression) makes it red.
The right engagement can push any state Blue or Red.
